Ayanangsha Maitra, PhD | Journalist Lead, TheNewsSite.In |
New Delhi: With 127.7 million registered voters, Bangladesh is destined for the general election on February 12 that psephologists say reflects a fast-transforming electorate, marked by changing rural and metropolitan voting patterns, economic factors and a significant recalibration of voter-psychology. The mood across the linguist nation of 170 million is a blend of excitement, euphoria, fear, and frustration. A national referendum will also be held on the same day. Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) stands undisputed leader but certainly not unchallenged in the absence of largest party, Awami League, steered by former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.
The second contestant Jamaat-e-Islami has historically never posed a decisive electoral challenge to any incumbent. The entity, remains a highly organised, cadre-based party with strong grassroots connection. This election is being held roughly 18 months after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ouster on August 5, 2024. Another crucial factor is the absence of anti-incumbency sentiment, as the country is currently governed by a non-elected interim administration.
At the local level, public sentiment is visibly agitated. Displays of muscle-flexing and aggressive mobilisation at bus stops, roadside markets, and ferry ghats have drawn criticism, with many comparing these tactics to the extortion networks once monopolised by the Awami League. Meanwhile, the BNP has expelled or suspended over 6,000 party members across various levels. Where these disaffected votes will ultimately land – whether they swing the election or benefit Jamaat remains a key concern for BNP leadership.
Traditionally, Jamaat has secured around 7–8 percent of the national vote. This election, however, the party is projecting unprecedented confidence. BNP is widely expected to win between 170 and 180 seats, with the possibility of exceeding that number. Two factors will significantly influence the final outcome: voter responses to local rebel candidates and internal factionalism, and the direct ideological contest, unprecedented in scale – between Islamist and secular democratic forces.
Psephologists forecast a sharp surge in Jamaat’s vote share, stemming from 7 – 8 percent to as high as 25 – 30 percent. Jamaat is expected to perform strongly in constituencies such as Thakurgaon-2, Dinajpur-1, 4, and 6, Cox’s Bazar-2 and 3, Bogra-2, Chapai Nawabganj-1, Rajshahi-2, Pabna-1, 2, and 5, Kushtia-2 and 3, Jhenaidah-2, 3, and 4, Jessore-1, 2, 4, 5, and 6, and Khulna-5 and 6. This time, the party is expected to win over 50-60 seats.
“Tarique Rahman is more like Rahul Gandhi,” remarked a psephologist from Chittagong , referring to the BNP’s Tsar. After 17 years in exile in London, Tarique Rahman only registered as a voter shortly before the election. Critics argue that he lacks grassroots engagement and the body language of a mass leader. In contrast, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir, often seen in his trademark white kurta, has endured repeated detentions and political pressure, emerging as a symbol of organisational resilience.
Firebrand leader Rumeen Farhana, expelled from BNP, has grown increasingly vocal, reflecting broader frustration among long-serving party workers. This internal split may prove costly for BNP at a critical juncture.
Several factors will shape the electoral arithmetic. In the February 2026 election cycle, the voting behaviour of suspended Awami League supporters and minority communities will be decisive.
A section of Awami League supporters is expected to vote for the Jatiya Party, their former alliance partner. The Awami League’s electoral alliance, estimated at 35 – 36 percent of the vote bank has been barred from contesting through an administrative order, effectively keeping it out of the formal electoral process.
The elections of 2014, 2018, and 2024 were widely alleged to have been partially rigged or hijacked. A persistent grievance among voters has been India’s perceived support for these one-sided elections during Hasina era, which has sparked anti-India sentiment. Among all past elections, the June 1996 polls remain the benchmark for general elections.
Approximately 40 percent of voters in this election will be first-time voters. Many are influenced by the 2024 Gen Z-led national movement that brought down Hasina, while others are shaped by ideological commitments, family political affiliations, or anti-Awami League and anti-India sentiment.
The National Citizen Party (NCP) has failed to produce a unifying figure or charismatic icon or a poster boy to sell. Internal splits have weakened the organization, and influencer-leaders such as Tasnim Zara have charted independent paths. As seen in other contexts, such as the CPI(M) in West Bengal, social media popularity does not necessarily translate into votes.
BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami have historically contested many elections together, except June 1996, often sharing seats and supporting each other against their common rival, the Awami League. BNP previously ceded seats to Jamaat in Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, and Rangpur. This election, however, marks a shift from alliance to fierce competition between the two parties.
The polls will also test how many voters actively reject religious fundamentalism. While BNP lacks a dominant ‘checkmate’ candidate, it faces growing pressure from both Jamaat and expelled party leaders. The voting behaviour of Awami League supporters or say the loyalist now politically displaced – adds another layer of uncertainty.
BNP is projected to secure more than 170–180 seats in the unicameral parliament. Jamaat, however, has already gained significant public sympathy and is emerging as a full-fledged political contender with strong social roots. While its slogans may lack sharp punch, the party enjoys moral and community appeal. Jamaat’s persuasive reach is expanding through door-to-door campaigns, welfare activities, and outreach to economic vulnerable groups.
Jamaat is expected to consolidate nearly 70 percent of votes in the postal ballots, according to highly placed sources in Bangladesh. Introduced for the first time, postal ballots could prove a game changer. Around 800,000 postal votes, covering army, paramilitary, tri-services personnel, and civil officials are expected inside the country. By Monday morning, approximately 470,000 postal voters had already arrived from abroad, sources informed. Bangladesh National Cadet Corps, (the equivalent of India’s NCC), has been entrusted with this postal vote-counting process. Speaking to TheNewsSite.In, a former senior army officer of Bangladesh Army has expressed concern over the risk of miscalculation, given the scale and complexity of the exercise.
Overall vote share projections suggest a split of roughly 60 percent for BNP, 30 percent for Jamaat, and 10 percent for others. Even if Jamaat falls short of victory, Jamat will win millions heart and will be stronger in the negotiating table. Jamaat envisions a sociology of its own, with its ultimate aim set on 2031.
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