Prattyush Kala
The long-simmering tensions between Iran, and Israel- United States axis have erupted into open military confrontation, drawing multiple countries into what is emerging as one of the most expansive regional wars since World War II. Coordinated strikes, leadership assassinations, retaliatory attacks, and disruptions to global energy supplies have pushed West Asia into a volatile and unpredictable phase.
How it began?
On Saturday morning, Israel and the U.S. launched coordinated strikes on Iran, targeting the cities of Tehran, Isfahan, Qom and Kermanshah. The targets included Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) facilities, air defence capabilities, missile and drone launch sites and military airfields. As per Isreal Defense Forces (IDF), about 200 fighter jets took part in an ‘extensive attack against the missile array and the defence systems” in western and central Iran’. The sole aim of this Operation aka Operation Epic Fury as per the U.S. and Operation Roaring Lion as per Israel, is to crush the nuclear infrastructure of Iran and ‘ensure Iran doesn’t obtain a nuclear weapon’ as highlighted by the U.S. President Donald Trump.
Leadership Loss
The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader and other top leaders has created a power vacuum in the country. Among those who lost their lives were Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Defence Minister Amir Nasirzadeh, Commander of the Revolutionary Guards Mohammed Pakpour, top advisor Ali Shamkhani and Chief of Staff Seyed Abdolrahim Mousavi. Iran has vowed to ‘give a befitting reply’ to the US and Israel. In a letter to Secretary-General Antonio Gutteress, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has termed the actions of the U.S. and Israel ‘cowardly act of terror’, with him calling the strike a “grave and unprecedented breach” of international law, citing Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. He further mentioned that “Failure to respond decisively to such conduct will not only embolden its perpetrators but will also inflict lasting and irreparable damage on the foundations of the international legal order for decades to come”.
Regional Escalation
The war has now entered the third day on Monday, with Iran launching retaliatory strikes and launching of Operation Truthful Promise 4. Under the operation Iran has launched attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain etc. Furthermore, the Dubai Port, the Dubai Airport and Aramco Oil facility have come under attack by Iranian drones, inflicting damage to the infrastructure.
Iran has sought to widen the scope of the war, with it targeting the U.K. bases in Cyprus in the Mediterranean Sea. A drone strike was reported at the British’s Royal Air Force Base at Akrotiri, with it causing limited damage and no casualties. This has further intensified the prospects of NATO joining the war, with the U.K., France and Germany releasing a joint statement condemning the Iranian attack and hinting towards joining the war in the near future.
Impact on India
India, being in the neighbourhood have borne the brunt of the war, with its share market plummeting with Sensex dropping by 1048 points and Nifty by 312.95 points. The immediate issue for India is to safely evacuate its people from the region, with them being distributed throughout the region. In Iran alone around 3000 Indian students are stuck, with around 1000-1200 in conflict zones.
Another emerging problem is the blow to Oil supply, with the closure of Strait of Hormuz. Around 150 oil carrying vessels are stranded now in the open sea, leading to Oil supply disruptions. Russia’s foreign ministry said that the closure ‘could lead to significant disbalances on the global oil and gas markets’. In the international market the effect is visible, with the prices of Brent Crude touching 80 dollars per barrel. This increase as per the experts is touted to cause a rise in oil prices in India by 4-5 rupees over the next two days. Far beyond the frontlines, the war is sending shockwaves through global energy networks and financial markets.
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