Surya Prakash Noutiyal
After negotiations over Iran’s nuclear and missile programs failed, the United States and Israel launched a full-scale war against Iran on 28 February, placing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states at a strategic crossroads in the escalating U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict.
The Gulf countries, especially the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, are in an intense “Catch-22” situation, having been directly dragged into a direct military confrontation between Iran, the U.S. and Israel. These states are dependent on the U.S. for their security, and they are under intensified attacks in retaliation for U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran.
Before the war, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had assured Iran that its territory and airspace would not be used to attack Iran. Similar assurances were made by the other Gulf countries that host U.S. bases. However, these assurances did not satisfy Iranian defence establishments to deter them from attacking the Kingdom and other countries in the region.
Qatar’s Prime Minister has expressed a big “sense of betrayal” over Iran’s action against Doha. He said that “Just an hour after the start of war, Qatar and other Gulf countries have been attacked. We made clear that we were not going to take part in any war against our neighbours.”
In response to U.S.-Israel military operations, Iran has launched missile and drone attacks on the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and other American bases in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar. Even Oman has also been attacked, as it was serving as a mediator in talks between Iran and the US before the war.
Iran has closed the Straight of Hormuz, leading to serious economic losses for the oil-exporting countries in the region and leading to a 26 per cent increase in crude oil prices, and halting a fifth of global gas supply in the international market.
Along with the U.S. military bases, Tehran is targeting oil infrastructure and civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings and airports in the Gulf countries. These attacks have impacted the security and economic development in Gulf states.
In response to the Iranian attack, Gulf countries are adapting defensive strategies by striking down incoming Iranian missiles and drones, protecting critical oil and gas infrastructure, and making diplomatic efforts to reduce the spillover effect of war.
The objective of the defensive strategy is not to be directly involved in the war, when the U.S. and Israel are already inflicting maximum damage on Iran. Another dimension for the defensive posture of Gulf countries is domestic issues. After the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in a U.S.-Israel strike, the Shia population in Gulf countries would not appreciate the retaliatory attack by the Gulf countries on Iran in the holy month of Ramzan.
Since the discovery of crude oil and natural gas in the 1930s, the Gulf countries have remained economically dependent on exporting energy to the global market. Major countries are undergoing economic transformation, which is draining their economic resources for the development of other sectors in these countries. A long-term war in Iran and its negative impact on the energy supply to the globe can impact the fiscal stability of these Gulf countries.
On Saturday, the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a television address, “I personally apologise to the neighbouring countries that were affected by Iran’s action”.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also reiterated that it will respect the sovereignty of neighbouring countries unless they attack Iran first. However, Iranian ballistic missiles and drones continue to target Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain after the assurance by the Iranian regime. Also, Iranian attacks on the GCC states vary in degree. For example, Iran is targeting the UAE more than it has targeted Oman.
As the U.S.-Israel is now targeting the oil and gas infrastructure in Iran, the IRGC spokesman Ebrahim Zolfaghari has warned Islamic countries that it will wage an ‘energy war’ against them if the US-Israeli strikes target fuel and energy infrastructure in Iran.
Since Iran continues to attack Gulf countries, the question remains for how long these states will support a defensive strategy against Iran. Although, Saudi Foreign Ministry has warned Iran that it will face devastation if it continues to launch drones and missiles against the Gulf states. However, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries would not like to join the U.S. and Israel in a direct confrontation with Iran.
Tehran, on the other hand, has also started targeting other countries in the Middle East to pressure the U.S. against the spillover effects of war. North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) air defence has intercepted and shot down a second ballistic missile in Turkiye’s airspace coming from Iran.
Iran is relying on two pressure tactics: first, by attacking the Middle Eastern countries, so that they can urge the U.S. to stop attacking Iran. Second, waging ‘energy war’ by attacking energy infrastructure in Gulf countries and preventing the supply of energy through the Straight of Hormuz. As crude oil prices neared $120 earlier this week, energy-dependent countries like India are also feeling the pinch of the war. The safety of around 9 million Indian diaspora in the Middle East remains another concern for India.
[ Surya Prakash Noutiyal is a doctoral candidate at the Centre for West Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, India. Opinions personal. ]
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