Elections: Why BJP Struggling to Checkmate Mamata in Bengal?

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Ayanangsha Maitra |  Journalist Lead, TheNewsSite.In |  On-Ground| 

Elections are a mathematics of chances and choices stemming from emotions. For her unicameral-style assembly house, the Vidhan Sabha, West Bengal will go to the polls in a two-phase election on April 23 and April 29 under the watch of intensified Central forces. In the Phase I, Over 2,400 companies of Central forces will be marching through the streets and along the paths of uncharted villages, from census towns to heavily policed urban centers in the transit state.

Over 6.82 crore voters — men, women, and a small but significant third-gender population — will determine the future of the TMC’s straight three-term legacy since it toppled the Left (CPIM-led government) in 2011. Women, nearly equal in number to men, have emerged as a decisive political force, their choices often anchored in welfare schemes like Laxmi Bhandar, the monthly allowance of Rs. 1500–1700. For local women, governance is not a promise but a monthly assurance. In the last Assembly elections of 2021, the women factor helped Banerjee’s TMC win. 

For any election, sociology matters most. As does economics. The two become enabling factors for politics, says the experience of this journalist, who started covering elections at the age of 18 during the 2011 Assembly elections.

Bengal remains overwhelmingly rural, with about 40,000 census villages across 23 districts. Beyond the urban clusters of Kolkata, Siliguri, and Durgapur, politics travels through panchayats, haats, local babus, and tea stalls. Here, “two-way communication” between leaders and people is not a slogan – it is survival. Parties that listen endure.

At the heart of this election stands Mamata Banerjee and her All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), a party that has, over three consecutive terms, learned to read Bengal’s pulse with precision. It is both an advantage and a challenge. Fifteen years in power bring governance experience, but also fatigue, factionalism, and the weight of allegations — from recruitment scams like SSC to everyday accusations of corruption. There is severe corruption at the local level, and most of it remains unreported to the party headquarter. Yet Banerjee’s greatest political craft lies in narrative control. Anti-incumbency exists, but it rarely stays put. Time and again, it is redirected toward the Centre and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), turning state-level discontent into a larger federal grievance. There was severe allegations against the TMC of booth rigging in the panchayat elections and the party has tasted the bitterness.

The BJP, for its part, has expanded aggressively since 2016. Its appeal to nationalism, development, and identity resonates across sections — particularly in North Bengal and industrial belts like Asansol and Raniganj. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s development push — projects worth thousands of crores in infrastructure and energy signals political intent.

But Bengal is not easily swayed by scale alone.

Over 9 million names have been deleted in the Special Intensive Revision 2026, and nearly half a million names have been added to the voters’ roll till the time of filing, according to the ECI.

Nearly 27–30% of Bengal’s population is Muslim, and electoral history shows a strong consolidation of religious minority votes — largely behind the TMC. Attempts at religious polarisation, including debates around citizenship laws, have often produced counter-consolidation rather than division. In a state shaped by 34 years of Left rule under the Communist Party of India (Marxist), communal binaries do not translate neatly into votes. Here, Muslims organize and massively participate in Durga Puja and other Hindu festivals; Hindus attend Eid gatherings — the social fabric resists easy polarisation. Bengali Brahmins enjoy fish, mutton, and chicken.

Infact, Bengal votes through a layered psyche: sub-national pride, economic need, cultural identity, and local equations. The TMC has capitalised on this “Bengali sub-nationalism,” projecting itself as Bengal’s own voice against “outsiders.” Language becomes politics here campaign speeches in Bangla often resonate more deeply than grand rallies in Hindi.

From self-help groups to freebie beneficiaries to TV serials, the TMC has a strong communication channel that functions on a day-to-day basis. Most actors and actresses are either candidates or directly endorse them. Rural villages get to see in daylight what they watch on TV screens – something they had never dreamt of.

The BJP has star and megastar campaigners, including PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, but none of the star campaigners from the Centre speak Bangla. BJP has learnt a lot and applying the wisdom from 2021 to win at any cost.

BJP is not without footholds. Among communities like the Matuas and Rajbanshis, identity politics has opened new doors. In northern districts like Jalpaiguri, North Dinajpur, and South Dinajpur, the party is expected to perform strongly, potentially securing 20–25 seats.

But Bengal’s elections are rarely bipolar. The presence of the Indian National Congress and the Left creates a fragmentation of anti-incumbency votes — ironically helping the TMC. Leaders like Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury continue to hold ground in pockets like Malda and Murshidabad, while the Left experiments with youth-driven, digital campaigns that are yet to fully translate into trust.

Then there are smaller but significant players like the Indian Secular Front, which may add a handful of seats, especially in minority-dominated regions. Locals may forgive Humayun Kabir for the video if the alleged Rs 1,000 crore is utilized properly. He is a mass leader with mobilizing capacity among a section of Muslims, and his resources often speak the loudest during elections. Helicopter-style extravaganza politics was not so common in Bengal, once ruled by the Left.

What truly defines Bengal’s electoral pattern, however, is its emotional undercurrent.

There is fear over identity, livelihood, even food. The debate around fish and meat staples of Bengali life — has entered campaign rhetoric, forcing unlikely assurances from BJP leaders. There is aspiration — among youth seeking jobs beyond welfare. There is dependence — on schemes that put cash directly into the hands of women.

Flashpoints like Nandigram remain symbolic battlegrounds, while urban zones like Kolkata especially the port areas host high-stakes contests that mirror the larger state battle

Bengal’s border districts (Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal) carry anxieties of migration, citizenship, and security, while also acting as cultural corridors where language, food, and faith flow freely. Bengal is not like other states — it is a frontier, strategic and sensitive, where national narratives often collide with local realities.

Perhaps the most striking feature of this election is its calm. No pre-poll casualties, no visible violence — a rarity in Bengal’s charged political history. The quiet, however, is deceptive.

The Trinamool Congress enters this election with clear advantages: incumbency, a deep organisational network, and a leader who remains unmatched in statewide charisma. Over 24 welfare schemes have been initiated and institutionalised by CM Banerjee to woo voters. Being in power brings many advantages in exercising authority and creating communication channels for public trust-building at the state level — something the opposition lacks.

It is quite obvious that the BJP will increase its vote share significantly, and so will the CPI(M). The Congress may obtain 2–3 seats, whereas CPI(M) may get around 2 seats. The BJP may secure nearly 80-110. The SIR effect, freebies, and, after all, the administrative mechanism will favour the TMC. It won’t be surprising if the TMC gets 190 out of total 294 seats – despite public disappointment. But if the BJP manages to get 120+ seats, this will unnerve the TMC. It is also important to remember that it is a linguistic province, and the TMC has mastered the art of drawing Bengali-majority votes on the basis of sub-nationalism.

Corruption and malpractices under the TMC have grown significantly over the years. Several brutally corrupt leaders, many of whom switched from the CPI(M), are in the incumbent party. But the party under Mamata Banerjee has reformed, rebranded, and revived itself, following consultations with IPAC. This is exactly why the BJP and others cannot match the party in power.

The CPI(M) has mass appeal, but it is miles away from forming a formidable force to assume power. On the other hand, the TMC remains a single-leader-run party, albeit with frictions at the district level.

On the other hand, the BJP has very few mass leaders, whereas the TMC houses several in this category. The BJP brings ambition, resources, and a growing vote share — but still searches for a face in Bengal who can truly “checkmate” Banerjee on her own terrain. BJP’s intellectual heavyweights like Upper House member Swapan Dasgupta or Economic aide Sanjeev Sanyal may command columns and conferences, but not crowds. Their words rarely translate into votes the way even a rough-edged, school-dropout mass leader like Anubrata Mondal of the TMC can.

In the end, Bengal does not just vote for power. She votes for belonging and to manifest its legacy and culture. The voters have their choices, stemming from their own arithmetic – and, after all, emotions.