Maedeh Salahian | Senior Researcher, Economic Policy Department, Governance and Policy Think Tank (GPTT) , Tehran |
Since the beginning of 2026, Iran’s economy has faced a double challenge: the convergence of long-standing sanctions pressure with the complex and sensitive conditions of war. However, a close examination of current statistics an economic trends reveals a hopeful reality: Iran’s economy not only avoided collapse but also demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of the most turbulent conditions. While foreign forecasts predicted the collapse of supply chains and the paralysis of domestic markets under wartime conditions, we are instead witnessing encouraging signs and notable achievements.
Market Dynamism and Smart Distribution Management
Despite these threats, Iran’s goods distribution network demonstrated dynamism and flexibility, and the country never experienced a severe shortage or famine of essential goods. This stability in supply is the result of centralized management and the coordination of production and distribution sectors under emergency conditions.
A review of data from the Ministry of Economy’s monitoring reports, covering Esfand 1404 to Tir 1405, shows that Iran’s economy, despite operating under extremely difficult conditions—including war, a maritime blockade, and intensified sanctions—has been able to preserve two vital functions: the supply of essential goods and the continuation of foreign trade. Although these circumstances undoubtedly placed significant pressure on exports, imports, and financial markets, the key point is that the economy continued to function on a meaningful scale and did not cease operating.
The clearest sign of this resilience is the continued importation of essential goods. Imports of basic goods in Bahman reached 2,544,435 tons, with a daily average of 84,815 tons—a figure representing a 15 percent increase compared with the daily average during the first 10 months of 1404. Total imports of basic goods during the first 10 months of 1404 amounted to 22,593,516 tons, which was 17 percent higher than during the same period of the previous year.¹ These figures demonstrate that even before the onset of the wartime crisis, the infrastructure for supplying essential commodities was operating at an acceptable level.
In the following months, as security conditions intensified, pressure on imports became more evident. Nevertheless, the supply of essential goods continued uninterrupted. Imports of basic goods after the outbreak of the war totaled 4.55 million tons.² In Khordad, this figure reached 5.423 million tons,³ and in Tir, imports remained at 7.6 million tons.⁴ Although this represented an 11 percent decline compared with the corresponding pre-war period, the continuation of imports under such conditions is itself a significant achievement.
Export Growth Through Alternative Routes
The picture in foreign trade also reflects both the pressures of war and blockade and the continued functioning of commercial activity. During the year, Iran succeeded in identifying new trade routes and expanding exports to various destinations, particularly in eastern markets. This achievement suggests the limited effectiveness of the strategy of “economic isolation,” which sought to paralyze the country’s economy.
The value of exports in Khordad reached $7.63 billion, while imports totaled $12.033 billion. In Tir, exports increased to $10.968 billion, and imports reached $14.234 billion. Although the trade balance remained negative, the overall volume of trade continued at a multi-billion-dollar scale, despite sanctions, war, and severe maritime restrictions.
Another notable development has been the performance of customs authorities and the reduction in customs clearance times. In Ordibehesht, the clearance time for essential goods declined from 17 days to 10 days. In Khordad, it fell from 18 days to 11 days,³ while in Tir the clearance time for essential goods was recorded at 15 days.⁴ Meanwhile, the clearance time for export declarations remained approximately 1.8 days throughout these periods. These figures indicate that, even amid the crisis, the country’s executive institutions succeeded in improving the efficiency of logistics and customs procedures—an achievement of particular importance under blockade conditions.
The foreign exchange, gold, and financial asset markets were naturally affected by wartime pressures and heightened political and economic uncertainty. In Esfand 1404, the official exchange rate stood at 137.9 thousand tomans,¹ while the unofficial market rate reached 162.7 thousand tomans.¹ The gap between these rates reflects inflationary expectations and psychological pressures within the market. At the same time, these data also demonstrate that the economy retained its core operating mechanisms despite the crisis. Fluctuations in the prices of Tether, gold, and coins reflected the atmosphere of caution and uncertainty associated with wartime conditions rather than evidence of economic collapse.
In summary, despite severe sanctions, war, and a maritime blockade, Iran’s economy has maintained imports of essential goods while keeping foreign trade routes operational. Under such circumstances, it is natural for trade imbalances to emerge and market pressures to intensify. Nevertheless, the critical point is that the country’s economy—particularly in sectors vital to daily life—has maintained its resilience.
For this reason, it can be argued that although Iran’s economy has faced serious constraints and considerable pressure during this period, it has succeeded in preserving its core functions and navigating a path of effective crisis management. If accompanied by reduced tensions and strengthened logistics and trade infrastructure, this trajectory could gradually contribute to greater economic stability and improvement.
Social Solidarity and a Participatory Economy
One of the most encouraging developments of the year has been the emergence of a strong spirit of mutual assistance and national solidarity within the economy. Domestic investment and public support for national products have fostered a form of “economy of resistance” that, beyond economic indicators, reflects public confidence in domestic capabilities.
Iran’s economic performance since the beginning of the year conveys a clear message to the world: “Our economy is one that learns to grow under the harshest conditions.” Today, Iran has not only withstood the pressures of war but has also used this crisis as an opportunity to move toward a more stable and independent economic structure. This resilience amid uncertainty offers the prospect of brighter days ahead, in which economic independence is strengthened through expertise and national determination.
[Opinions expressed personal.]
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